The Clean Development Mechanism, the UN-administered carbon credit scheme set up under the Kyoto Protocol is once again in the spotlight at the COP in Cancun. The CDM has been hailed as a great success, perhaps unsurprisingly, by its own Executive Board (EB), having already delivered about 450 million tonnes of emission reduction credits to be used against compliance purposes, proving that the concept of flexible market mechanisms can deliver clean technology based emissions reductions in developing countries and reduce the cost of compliance in industrialised countries. However others point out that the vast majority of credits come from industrial gas destruction that has few if any side benefits to sustainable development, and, some argue, should have taken place anyway even without the CDM. Only last week the CDM EB meeting reported that accusations of fraudulent HFC credits were unfounded and that there was 'no evidence' that any projects had recived more credits than their due. They nevertheless withdrew the methodology concerned with immediate effect - meaning no new HFC projects until a revised stricter methodology is in place.
Meanwhile the EU announced it would no longer accept HFC credits after 2013. These developments may contibute towards a shift away from over-reliance on a few industrial gas facilities to reduce emissions, and the controversy over many millions of euros of European money going to just a few industrial gas facilities, mainly in China and southeast Asia.
This Tuesday the CDM Executive Board held a Q&A session that was dominated by criticism of the sustainable development benefits (or percieved lack of) for CDM projects. A group of waste pickers from countries as far afield as Brazil, South Africa and India accused CDM landfill gas flaring projects of destroying their livelihood. The waste pickers were passionate advocates for their cause.
Unfortunately for the waste pickers the EB has little power to stop projects on the grounds of negative social and environmental impacts. Essentially the Board's hands are tied by a political decision at Kyoto to leave the potentially controversial definition of sustainable development to the host countries. I wonder if the waste pickers would get as sympathetic a reception with their own governments as they did with the EB members here in Cancun?
Meanwhile, wider reform of the CDM is on the agenda of the COP negotiations. One difficult subject is the legal liability for any credits that are found to have been over-issued. In Marrakesh in 2001 the negotiating parties decided to assign this liability to the private auditing companies ('DOEs') that validate and verify CDM projects. However a recent proposal by the UNFCCC to put this theoretical liability into practice through a detailed procedure was met with widespread hostility by market players. The auditing companies complain that the scale and degree of liability being inposed on them, regardless of whether they acted negligently or acted properly, is unfair and unmanageable. They also point out that it creates a perverse incentive for project developers to defraud the auditors, since the developers keep any excess credits without suffering any penalties, whilst the auditors, who did not benefit financially from any excess credits, face huge financial penalties.
What the COP will decide on this complex and legally difficult area remains to be seen, but unless a secure way of ensuring the inegrity of credits is found, such as a fund into which all project developers pay in, the likelihood is that CDM will become much more challenging in the future. This is due to a likely increase in transaction costs to try and cover the enormous liabilities, and a reluctance of auditors to take on complex projects that are seen as more risky.
On other issues related to CDM, it looks like the appetite of the COP to further reform the mechanism may be somewhat diminished this year.
Clearly there are wider priorities, and the EU has already declared that its 'shopping list' of reforms that it would like to get out of Cancun is considerably smaller than the massive Wal-Mart sized shopping trolley it bagged in Copenhagen. Right now the focus of the negotiations on the CDM is likely to be on following up what was called for last year and either congratulating or berating the EB on the progress/lack of progress (depending on your point of view!). So don't expect massive changes, but watch the details such as DOE liability. These issues have to potential to derail the working of the mechanism in the future.
Jonathan Avis, ECM 2003-4
Friday, 3 December 2010
ECI media coverage
You guys are really keeping the ECI comms team busy - I feel like we’re updating the website every 5 minutes!!
The Themed Issue of 'Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications' in Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A, has received great coverage since its online publication on Monday, with several news media referencing the papers and Mark New appearing on Radio 4. We have also heard from Max and Diana that the four degrees research papers have been mentioned in several side events and even made the front page of the Cancun NGO newsletter ECO, which is great!
Today the side event International Climate Change Symposium: Relevant Research for Mexico, co-organised by ECI along with the University of Arizona and National Institute of Ecology in Mexico, received coverage on the official COP16 website and includes a short video and photographs of the panel.
Go team go!!
I hope the ECI team have now made it to Cancun after the UK flight cancellations, and that the ECI stand is now brimming with research materials. I wish you well for the days ahead and hope that you get time off from your busy schedules to meet alumni and friends for dinner tonight - raise a cocktail glass for me!
Keep up the good work, and keep blogging – it’s really great to read your thoughts on events as they unfold.
Maria Mansfield, ECI
The Themed Issue of 'Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications' in Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A, has received great coverage since its online publication on Monday, with several news media referencing the papers and Mark New appearing on Radio 4. We have also heard from Max and Diana that the four degrees research papers have been mentioned in several side events and even made the front page of the Cancun NGO newsletter ECO, which is great!
Today the side event International Climate Change Symposium: Relevant Research for Mexico, co-organised by ECI along with the University of Arizona and National Institute of Ecology in Mexico, received coverage on the official COP16 website and includes a short video and photographs of the panel.
Go team go!!
I hope the ECI team have now made it to Cancun after the UK flight cancellations, and that the ECI stand is now brimming with research materials. I wish you well for the days ahead and hope that you get time off from your busy schedules to meet alumni and friends for dinner tonight - raise a cocktail glass for me!
Keep up the good work, and keep blogging – it’s really great to read your thoughts on events as they unfold.
Maria Mansfield, ECI
Debating action at the BBC
Yesterday I braved the elements and travelled to the Open University in Milton Keynes, where I took part in recorded debate for the BBC World Service programme 'One Planet'. The subject was 'What is stopping us from taking action on climate change" - a pretty big topic that we had to get through in about 22 minutes!! Although a bit nerve-wracking, I enjoyed meeting the other panellists (Stephan Peake, Bjorn Lomborg and Sunand Prasad) and seeing how radio programme-making operates from the 'inside', which is a lot more frantic than I had anticipated. I think the debate got a little stuck on discussing the individual-level changes required, and not enough emphasis was placed on issues of governance and socio-technical transitions...but it was not a bad chat, all the same!
You can listen to the debate online
Kersty Hobson, Senior Research Fellow into the Social and Cultural Contexts of Environmental Change
You can listen to the debate online
Kersty Hobson, Senior Research Fellow into the Social and Cultural Contexts of Environmental Change
Thursday, 2 December 2010
Preliminary posturings
Perhaps many of you are still snowbound in the UK but it would be nice to hear from some of you who are in Cancun! I arrived last night and today participated in the Oxford off-conference event at the Climate Villa in the real town of Cancun. Cancun is surreal at the best of times - towering modern hotels lined up along the barrier island and a real Mexican town across the lagoon that many tourists do not visit. The COP adds to this by having the formal negotiations many kilometers south of the hotel zone, and the conference center with the side events even further south - and multiple military check points en route.
Arnoldo worked hard to have some of the Oxford delegation present their work to the students and ordinary citizens of Cancun but the events at the Climate Villa are not that well advertised and are a long way from the COP locations. We had a small but interested audience and five of us spoke (me, James Painter, Timmons Roberts, Tracey Osborne and Arnoldo Matus Kramer). We all decided to present in Spanish - some of us a bit rusty - but good diplomacy I hope. It was great to bump into ECI DPhil alum Alex Guerra who has just been appointed director of a new climate change institute in Guatemala.
It hard to find out what is happening with locations so dispersed unless you watch the online news conferences but so far the big news was the Japanese coming out against a second phase of Kyoto and Brazilian head of state canceling his visit because he thinks no progress will be made. Perhaps the ECI dinner tomorrow night will be a chance to compare notes because of the diverse roles of alumni here.
Arnoldo worked hard to have some of the Oxford delegation present their work to the students and ordinary citizens of Cancun but the events at the Climate Villa are not that well advertised and are a long way from the COP locations. We had a small but interested audience and five of us spoke (me, James Painter, Timmons Roberts, Tracey Osborne and Arnoldo Matus Kramer). We all decided to present in Spanish - some of us a bit rusty - but good diplomacy I hope. It was great to bump into ECI DPhil alum Alex Guerra who has just been appointed director of a new climate change institute in Guatemala.
It hard to find out what is happening with locations so dispersed unless you watch the online news conferences but so far the big news was the Japanese coming out against a second phase of Kyoto and Brazilian head of state canceling his visit because he thinks no progress will be made. Perhaps the ECI dinner tomorrow night will be a chance to compare notes because of the diverse roles of alumni here.
Saturday, 27 November 2010
Cancun hopes and fears
I arrive in Cancun on Wednesday, with low expectations but looking forward to seeing friends and participating in several events on climate change and food security on behalf of Oxford based GECAFS (www.gecafs.org). I wish I felt more optimistic that there will be progress because I would so like Mexico to be able to take some credit for success - I have worked on climate change in Mexico and with Mexican colleagues for many years.
Last night, at a Thanksgiving dinner in Tucson I had the chance to see Cape Farewell voyager and writer Gretel Ehrlich whose latest book - The Empire of Ice - documents the changes in the Arctic and impact on its indigenous peoples. Gretel is very pessimistic about the fate of the Arctic if we do not respond to climate change. We spent some time talking about American politics and the prospects for action on climate change, with Neal Conan (of NPR) urging us to take seriously the anger of those who voted for tea party and republican climate deniers in the recent election. Our host, someone whose family has ranched in the American West for decades, suggested we appeal to the personal inter generational concerns of American families but then that doesn't help when with the recession millions of people are unemployed and angry and are worried about today and not tomorrow.
On Monday the special issue of Phil Trans that Mark New and I edited with Tyndall's Kevin Anderson will come out with its focus on the world at 4 degrees C. It is a reminder of what we will face if we don't make progress in Cancun.
Cancun itself is vulnerable to climate change as ECI DPhil Arnoldo Matus Kramer is documenting in his dissertation in regard to risks of sea level rise and hurricanes. I hope that some of you attending Cancun get a chance to visit outside the hotel zone and see the amazing archaeological sites (such as Tulum or Chichen Itza) which are also reminders of what happens when society faces multiple stresses. The collapse of Mayan civilization in the Yucatan peninsula being a classic example of the intersection of increasing consumption, soil depletion and drought.
Diana Liverman
(former director of ECI and now co-director of the Institute of Environment at the University of Arizona and senior research fellow in ECI)
Last night, at a Thanksgiving dinner in Tucson I had the chance to see Cape Farewell voyager and writer Gretel Ehrlich whose latest book - The Empire of Ice - documents the changes in the Arctic and impact on its indigenous peoples. Gretel is very pessimistic about the fate of the Arctic if we do not respond to climate change. We spent some time talking about American politics and the prospects for action on climate change, with Neal Conan (of NPR) urging us to take seriously the anger of those who voted for tea party and republican climate deniers in the recent election. Our host, someone whose family has ranched in the American West for decades, suggested we appeal to the personal inter generational concerns of American families but then that doesn't help when with the recession millions of people are unemployed and angry and are worried about today and not tomorrow.
On Monday the special issue of Phil Trans that Mark New and I edited with Tyndall's Kevin Anderson will come out with its focus on the world at 4 degrees C. It is a reminder of what we will face if we don't make progress in Cancun.
Cancun itself is vulnerable to climate change as ECI DPhil Arnoldo Matus Kramer is documenting in his dissertation in regard to risks of sea level rise and hurricanes. I hope that some of you attending Cancun get a chance to visit outside the hotel zone and see the amazing archaeological sites (such as Tulum or Chichen Itza) which are also reminders of what happens when society faces multiple stresses. The collapse of Mayan civilization in the Yucatan peninsula being a classic example of the intersection of increasing consumption, soil depletion and drought.
Diana Liverman
(former director of ECI and now co-director of the Institute of Environment at the University of Arizona and senior research fellow in ECI)
Friday, 26 November 2010
What a difference a year makes. Before Copenhagen, there was a tremendous sense of excitement and anticipation. Remember the slogan ‘Hopenhagen’? But President Felipe Calderon of Mexico, the new executive secretary of the UNFCCC Christiana Figueres, and just about every Western government official is downplaying the chances of any major advance at Cancun. Seems like Cancan’t.
Just compare the numbers of heads of state meant to be attending. Copenhagen had around 120. When I spoke this week to the Mexican foreign ministry, they were expecting around 20. Many of those are from Latin America and the Caribbean - there to offer some Latin solidarity to Mexico towards the end of the summit.
And the media? As our recent Reuters Institute study showed, about 4,000 journalists attended Copenhagen from 119 countries. We don’t know of a political event where more journalists were present. It wasn’t just the Western press who were there. Brazil and China both had more than 100 journalists there. http://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/publications/risj-challenges/summoned-by-science.html
This time, the UNFCCC says half that figure has registered, but many are coming just for the last few days. The BBC, Washington Post and New York Times are all scaling back their coverage compared to Copenhagen. http://www.cjr.org/the_observatory/from_copenhagen_to_cancun.php?page=al
There is bound to be less drama and excitement. But there is one consolation – the temperature in Cancun is around 27C at the moment. That’s got to be better than queuing (fruitlessly at times) in sub-zero temperatures in Copenhagen.
James Painter is the author of’ Summoned by Science’, a study of how the international media reported the Copenhagen summit. He will be at Cancun working for the BBC website, bbcmundo.com.
Just compare the numbers of heads of state meant to be attending. Copenhagen had around 120. When I spoke this week to the Mexican foreign ministry, they were expecting around 20. Many of those are from Latin America and the Caribbean - there to offer some Latin solidarity to Mexico towards the end of the summit.
And the media? As our recent Reuters Institute study showed, about 4,000 journalists attended Copenhagen from 119 countries. We don’t know of a political event where more journalists were present. It wasn’t just the Western press who were there. Brazil and China both had more than 100 journalists there. http://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/publications/risj-challenges/summoned-by-science.html
This time, the UNFCCC says half that figure has registered, but many are coming just for the last few days. The BBC, Washington Post and New York Times are all scaling back their coverage compared to Copenhagen. http://www.cjr.org/the_observatory/from_copenhagen_to_cancun.php?page=al
There is bound to be less drama and excitement. But there is one consolation – the temperature in Cancun is around 27C at the moment. That’s got to be better than queuing (fruitlessly at times) in sub-zero temperatures in Copenhagen.
James Painter is the author of’ Summoned by Science’, a study of how the international media reported the Copenhagen summit. He will be at Cancun working for the BBC website, bbcmundo.com.
Wednesday, 3 November 2010
UPDATE - The ECI blog is all set for your comments on Cancun 2010!
ECI alumni, affiliates, staff and students will be updating this blog as the negotiations are in progress.
COP16 takes place from 29 November - 10 December 2010.
COP16 takes place from 29 November - 10 December 2010.
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